Do Declining Empires Lose Leadership in Science?

PSI Blog 20250217 Do Declining Empires Lose Leadership in Science?

 

Yes.

 

[GB: In the last few years I have been seeing the most important scientific articles in my professional field that seem overwhelmingly authored by Chinese scientists. Then too, my own country, the USA, seems to be in decline as indicated by the shrinkage of the middle class and their propensity to support those who would withdraw from the international scene and reject science and rationality altogether. So, I asked Perplexity AI the question above. Here was its answer with references indicated by the superscripted numbers:]

 

“Yes, declining empires typically lose leadership in science. This pattern is evident in historical examples and aligns with broader trends of imperial decline.

 

The decline of scientific leadership often coincides with other indicators of imperial decline:

 

Shift in priorities: As empires begin to decline, they often focus more on maintaining power and less on scientific advancement¹.

 

Economic challenges: Declining empires face economic difficulties, which can lead to reduced funding for scientific research and education⁴.

 

Brain drain: As conditions deteriorate, talented scientists and scholars may leave for more stable or prosperous regions².

 

Cultural shifts: Declining empires may experience changes in societal values that deemphasize scientific inquiry and innovation²⁶.

 

Loss of global influence: As empires lose power, their ability to attract international talent and resources for scientific pursuits diminishes¹⁴.

 

A historical example of this phenomenon is the decline of scientific leadership in the Islamic world:

 

The Islamic Golden Age and Its Decline

 

During the Islamic Golden Age (8th to 14th centuries), the Muslim world was at the forefront of scientific advancement. However, this leadership waned significantly:

 

By the 15th century, no university in the Muslim world was teaching science and philosophy².

 

The decline in scientific pursuit began in the 11th century and accelerated thereafter².

 

While Muslim empires (Ottoman, Safavid, and Mughal) remained powerful until the 17th-18th centuries, they fell behind in scientific and industrial development².

 

This decline in scientific leadership coincided with the broader decline of these empires, illustrating the connection between imperial power and scientific advancement.

 

In contrast, as European powers rose, they built upon the scientific knowledge translated from Arabic sources and surpassed the declining Muslim empires in scientific and technological innovation²⁴.

 

This pattern suggests that the loss of scientific leadership is both a symptom and a contributing factor to the overall decline of empires.”

 

[GB: Are there any current indicators that the United States is losing scientific leadership?]

 

“Yes, there are several current indicators that the United States is losing scientific leadership:

 

Research funding: China's R&D spending is rapidly catching up to the US, and is projected to draw level before 2030¹.

 

Scientific output: China surpassed the US as the top producer of science and engineering articles in 2016¹.

 

Personnel: In 2019, China overtook the US in the number of science and engineering PhDs awarded¹.

 

Patents: China became the leader in international patent applications in 2021¹.

 

Specific fields: The US is losing ground to China in materials science, physical sciences, and computer science¹.

 

Global perception: US science is perceived to be losing the race for global STEM leadership, according to the president of the US National Academy of Sciences¹².

 

Federal funding: US research investment as a share of GDP from federal sources has been declining, with private businesses picking up the slack¹.

 

International talent: There are concerns about the US ability to attract and retain international talent due to perceived hostility towards foreigners¹.

 

Education: The US pre-K-12 education system is considered inadequate to meet the needs of a diverse STEM workforce².

 

Global position: The US no longer predominates across all elements of science, technology, and innovation³.

 

These indicators suggest that while the US still maintains leadership in some areas, such as biomedical research and highly cited research, its overall scientific dominance is eroding, particularly in the face of rising competition from China and other nations in East and Southeast Asia¹³.”

 

[GB: Please excuse the AI, but I have no argument with it. It seems well researched, and certainly better than I could do. It explains why the Chinese have been doing so well in my field of late. You can repeat the questions and checkout the references for yourself.

Note that the USA, a particularly religious country, has been the chief propagandist for the Big Bang Theory, with NASA leading the way. Also, I vaguely remember a report that Xi Jinping recently presented a Chinese dissident with a special prize for a paper criticizing what amounts to being the "Last Creation Myth."]

 

PSI Blog 20250217

 

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