PSI Blog 20250217 Do Declining Empires Lose Leadership in Science?
Yes.
[GB: In the last few years I have
been seeing the most important scientific articles in my professional field
that seem overwhelmingly authored by Chinese scientists. Then too, my own
country, the USA, seems to be in decline as indicated by the shrinkage of the
middle class and their propensity to support those who would withdraw from the
international scene and reject science and rationality altogether. So, I asked
Perplexity AI the question above. Here was its answer with references indicated
by the superscripted numbers:]
“Yes, declining empires typically
lose leadership in science. This pattern is evident in historical examples and
aligns with broader trends of imperial decline.
The decline of scientific leadership
often coincides with other indicators of imperial decline:
Shift in priorities: As empires
begin to decline, they often focus more on maintaining power and less on
scientific advancement1.
Economic challenges: Declining
empires face economic difficulties, which can lead to reduced funding for
scientific research and education4.
Brain drain: As conditions
deteriorate, talented scientists and scholars may leave for more stable or
prosperous regions2.
Cultural shifts: Declining empires
may experience changes in societal values that deemphasize scientific inquiry
and innovation26.
Loss of global influence: As empires
lose power, their ability to attract international talent and resources for
scientific pursuits diminishes14.
A historical example of this
phenomenon is the decline of scientific leadership in the Islamic world:
The Islamic Golden Age and Its
Decline
During the Islamic Golden Age (8th
to 14th centuries), the Muslim world was at the forefront of scientific
advancement. However, this leadership waned significantly:
By the 15th century, no university
in the Muslim world was teaching science and philosophy2.
The decline in scientific pursuit
began in the 11th century and accelerated thereafter2.
While Muslim empires (Ottoman,
Safavid, and Mughal) remained powerful until the 17th-18th centuries, they fell
behind in scientific and industrial development2.
This decline in scientific
leadership coincided with the broader decline of these empires, illustrating
the connection between imperial power and scientific advancement.
In contrast, as European powers
rose, they built upon the scientific knowledge translated from Arabic sources
and surpassed the declining Muslim empires in scientific and technological
innovation24.
This pattern suggests that the loss
of scientific leadership is both a symptom and a contributing factor to the
overall decline of empires.”
[GB: Are there any current
indicators that the United States is losing scientific leadership?]
“Yes, there are several current
indicators that the United States is losing scientific leadership:
Research funding: China's R&D
spending is rapidly catching up to the US, and is projected to draw level
before 20301.
Scientific output: China surpassed
the US as the top producer of science and engineering articles in 20161.
Personnel: In 2019, China overtook
the US in the number of science and engineering PhDs awarded1.
Patents: China became the leader in
international patent applications in 20211.
Specific fields: The US is losing
ground to China in materials science, physical sciences, and computer science1.
Global perception: US science is
perceived to be losing the race for global STEM leadership, according to the
president of the US National Academy of Sciences12.
Federal funding: US research
investment as a share of GDP from federal sources has been declining, with
private businesses picking up the slack1.
International talent: There are
concerns about the US ability to attract and retain international talent due to
perceived hostility towards foreigners1.
Education: The US pre-K-12 education
system is considered inadequate to meet the needs of a diverse STEM workforce2.
Global position: The US no longer
predominates across all elements of science, technology, and innovation3.
These indicators suggest that while
the US still maintains leadership in some areas, such as biomedical research
and highly cited research, its overall scientific dominance is eroding,
particularly in the face of rising competition from China and other nations in
East and Southeast Asia13.”
[GB: Please excuse the AI, but I have no argument with it. It seems well researched, and certainly better than I could do. It explains why the Chinese have been doing so well in my field of late. You can repeat the questions and checkout the references for yourself.
Note that the USA, a particularly religious country, has been the chief propagandist for the Big Bang Theory, with NASA leading the way. Also, I vaguely remember a report that Xi Jinping recently presented a Chinese dissident with a special prize for a paper criticizing what amounts to being the "Last Creation Myth."]
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